Computational simulation of gas flow and heat transfer near an immersed object in fluidized beds

To improve the understanding of the heat transfer mechanism and to find a reliable and simple heat-transfer model, the gas flow and heat transfer between fluidized beds and the surfaces of an immersed object is numerically simulated based on a double particle-layer and porous medium model. The velocity field and temperature distribution of the gas and particles are analysed during the heat transfer process. The simulation shows that the change of gas velocity with the distance from immersed surface is consistent with the variation of bed voidage, and is used to validate approximately dimensional analysing result that the gas velocity between immersed surface and particles is 4.6Umf/εmf. The effects of particle size and particle residence time on the thermal penetration depth and the heat-transfer coefficients are also discussed.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]).

Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater.

Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors for major depression in children and adolescents

Objective:
To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in children and adolescents, compared to ‘current practice’.
Method:
The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filter criteria (‘equity’; ‘strength of evidence’, ‘feasibility’ and ‘acceptability to stakeholders’) is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are tracked for the duration of a new episode of MDD arising in eligible children (age 6–17 years) in the Australian population in the year 2000. Simulation-modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the cost-effectiveness ratios.
Results:
Compared to current practice, CBT by public psychologists is the most costeffective intervention for MDD in children and adolescents at A$9000 per DALY saved (95% UI A$3900 to A$24 000). SSRIs and CBT by other providers are less cost-effective but likely to be less than A$50 000 per DALY saved (> 80% chance). CBT is more effective than SSRIs in children and adolescents, resulting in a greater total health benefit (DALYs saved) than could be achieved with SSRIs. Issues that require attention for the CBT intervention include equity concerns, ensuring an adequate workforce, funding arrangements and acceptability to various stakeholders.
Conclusions:
Cognitive behavioural therapy provided by a public psychologist is the most
effective and cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of MDD in children and adolescents. However, this option is not currently accessible by all patients and will require change in policy to allow more widespread uptake. It will also require ‘start-up’ costs and attention to ensuring an adequate workforce.

Cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine and methylphenidate for the treatment of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Objective: To analyze from a health sector perspective the cost-effectiveness of dexamphetamine (DEX) and methylphenidate (MPH) interventions to treat childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), compared to current practice.

Method: Children eligible for the interventions are those aged between 4 and 17 years in 2000, who had ADHD and were seeking care for emotional or behavioural problems, but were not receiving stimulant medication. To determine health benefit, a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials was performed for DEX and MPH, and the effect sizes were translated into utility values. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Simulation modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the incremental costeffectiveness ratio (ICER), which is calculated in cost (in A$) per DALY averted.

Results: The ICER for DEX is A$4100/DALY saved (95% UI: negative to A$14 000) and for MPH is A$15 000/DALY saved (95% UI: A$9100-22 000). DEX is more costly than MPH for the government, but much less costly for the patient.

Conclusions: MPH and DEX are cost-effective interventions for childhood ADHD. DEX is more cost-effective than MPH, although if MPH were listed at a lower price on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme it would become more cost-effective. Increased uptake of stimulants for ADHD would require policy change. However, the medication of children and wider availability of stimulants may concern parents and the community.

Cost-effectiveness of a family-based GP-mediated intervention targeting overweight and moderately obese children

Objective
 To assess from a societal perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of a family-based GP-mediated intervention targeting overweight and moderately obese children. The intervention was modelled on the LEAP (live, eat and play) trial, a randomised controlled trial conducted by the Centre for Community Child Health, Melbourne, Australia in 2002–2003. This study was undertaken as part of the assessing cost-effectiveness (ACE) in obesity project which evaluated, using consistent methods, 13 interventions targeting unhealthy weight gain in children and adolescents.
Method
A logic pathway was used to model the effects of the intervention compared to no intervention on body mass index (BMI) and health outcomes (disability-adjusted life years—DALYs). Disease costs and health benefits were tracked until the cohort of eligible children reached the age of 100 years or death. Simulation-modelling techniques were used to present a 95% uncertainty interval around the cost-effectiveness ratio. The intervention was also assessed against a series of filters (‘equity’, ‘strength of evidence’, ‘acceptability’, ‘feasibility’, sustainability’ and ‘side-effects’) to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions.
Results
The intervention, as modelled, reached 9685 children aged 5–9 years with a BMI z-score of ≥3.0, and cost $AUD6.3M (or $AUD4.8M excluding time costs). It resulted in an incremental saving of 2300 BMI units which translated to 511 DALYs. The cost-offsets stemming from the intervention totalled $AUD3.6M, resulting in a net cost per DALY saved of $AUD4670 (dominated; $0.1M) (dominated means intervention costs more for less effect).
Conclusion
Compared to a ‘no intervention’ control group, the intervention was cost-effective under current assumptions, although the uncertainty intervals were wide. A key question related to the long-term sustainability of the small incremental weight loss reported, based on the 9-month follow-up results for LEAP.

A comprehensive framework for assessing the life cycle energy of building construction assemblies

Environmental decision making during the building design process has typically focused on improvements to operational efficiencies. Improvements to thermal performance and efficiency of appliances and systems within buildings both aim to reduce resource consumption and environmental impacts associated with the operation of buildings. Significant reductions in building energy and water consumption are possible; however often the impacts occurring across the other stages of a building‘s life are not considered or are seen as insignificant in comparison.

Previous research shows that embodied impacts (raw material extraction, processing, manufacture, transportation and construction) can be as significant as those related to building operation. There is, however, limited consistent and comprehensive information available for building designers to make informed decisions in this area. Often the information that is available is from disparate sources, which makes comparison of alternative solutions unreliable and risky. lt is also important that decisions are made from a life cycle perspective, ensuring that strategies to reduce environmental impacts from one life cycle stage do not come at the expense of an increase in overall life cycle impacts

A consistent and comprehensive framework for assessing and specifying building assemblies for enhanced environmental outcomes does not currently exist. This paper presents the initial findings of a project that aims to establish a database of the life cycle energy requirements of a broad range of construction assemblies, based on a comprehensive assessment framework. Life cycle energy requirements have been calculated for eight standard residential construction assemblies integrating an innovative embodied energy assessment technique with thermal performance simulation modelling and ranked according to their performance.

Fire management for biodiversity conservation : key research questions and our capacity to answer them

Knowing how species respond to fire regimes is essential for ecologically sustainable management. This axiom raises two important questions: (1) what knowledge is the most important to develop and (2) to what extent can current research methods deliver that knowledge? We identify three areas of required knowledge: (i) a mechanistic understanding of species’ responses to fire regimes; (ii) knowledge of how the spatial and temporal arrangement of fires influences the biota; and (iii) an understanding of interactions of fire regimes with other processes. We review the capacity of empirical research to address these knowledge gaps, and reveal many limitations. Manipulative experiments are limited by the number and scope of treatments that can be applied, natural experiments are limited by treatment availability and confounding factors, and longitudinal studies are difficult to maintain, particularly due to unplanned disturbance events. Simulation modelling is limited by the quality of the underlying empirical data and by uncertainty in how well model structure represents reality. Due to the constraints on large-scale, long-term research, the potential for management experiments to inform adaptive management is limited. Rather than simply recommending adaptive management, we define a research agenda to maximise the rate of learning in this difficult field. This includes measuring responses at a species level, building capacity to implement natural experiments, undertaking simulation modelling, and judicious application of experimental approaches. Developing ecologically sustainable fire management practices will require sustained research effort and a sophisticated research agenda based on carefully targeting appropriate methods to address critical management questions.

Study on the visual performance of a vernacular dwelling in Egypt

Vernacular dwelling buildings located in hot arid regions are well known for their sensitive architecture response to the region’s climatic conditions and the socio-cultural norms. The architectural value of these buildings is not only limited to their historical merit, but also to the human conscious adaptation to its context and the optimum utilisation of natural resources creating both a pleasant and a functional environment. The majority of these traditional dwellings are well recognised for their unique perforated fenestration system and courtyard arrangement that evolved to control the harsh solar, climatic conditions without compromising the quality of space and occupants’ wellbeing. However, the successful design of these features and solutions cannot be fully appreciated without understanding the nature of daylight and solar radiation in which these buildings are revealed. This paper investigates the impact of the characteristic of the dense narrow streets of medieval cities on the visual performance of a typical courtyard house in Cairo.The paper examines the daylight  behaviour of one of the well-known historic alleys and of a courtyard house in Cairo. The paper analyzes and measures the variability in the visual perception and comfort for a typical pedestrian street and the occupants of the house using a simulation modelling tool (Integrated Environmental Solutions (IES) software). The paper gives an insight into the overall visual performance of the urban fabric that shapes of the microclimate, which is an important ingredient of the overall identity of the place.

Study on the visual performance of a traditional residential neighborhood in old Cairo

Traditional dwellings located in the hot arid zones of the Arabian regions are well known for their sensitive architectural response to the region’s climatic conditions and socio-cultural norms. The majority of these dwellings are well recognized for their courtyard arrangement and perforated fenestration system that evolved to control the harsh solar, climatic conditions without compromising the aesthetic quality of space and occupants’ wellbeing. However, the unique visual characteristics of these structures cannot be fully appreciated by assessing the visual performance of buildings in isolation from their urban context. Given the fact that much of the character of the traditional settlements of this region came from the collective visual perception of their architectural components as well as urban patterns. This paper presents a methodology that can be used to assess daylight behaviour at an architectural level as well as at an urban scale. The work examines the daylight behaviour of a well-known historic alleyway and of a courtyard house in the old city of Cairo. The variability in the visual perception and comfort for a typical pedestrian street and the occupants of the house was predicted using Radiance IES simulation modelling tool and a scaled model under an artificial sky dome. A comparative analysis between simulated results and measured values at target points was conducted and the results reveal a reasonable agreement with the simulation results. Preliminary results from the first phase of modelling were presented that give an insight into the overall visual experience in the traditional settlements in the Old City of Cairo where daylight has contributed to the place unique sense of identity.

Knowing wildfire risk: scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria, Australia

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.

Kanban devs modelling, simulation and verification

Kanban Control Systems (KCS) have become a widely accepted form of inventory and production control. The creation of realistic Discrete Events Simulation (DES) models of KCS require specification of both information and material flow. There are several commercially available simulation packages that are able to model these systems although the use of an application specific modelling language provides means for rapid model development. A new Kanban specific simulation language as well as a high-speed execution engine is verified in this paper through the simulation of a single stage single part type production line. A single stage single part KCS is modelled with exhaustive enumeration of the decision variables of container sizes and number of Kanbans. Several performance measures were used; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) of container Flow Time (FT), mean line throughput as well as the Coefficient of Variance (CV) of FT and Cycle Time were used to determine the robustness of the control system.

Modelling and simulation for manufacturing systems : challenges and benefits

Computer modelling and simulation is an indispensable tool of the information age, used extensively in design, analysis, operations, decision-making, optimization, and education and training. Manufacturing, production and design relies upon simulation to develop efficient production systems and factories that produce quality products. Computer simulation allows scientists and engineers to understand and predict three-dimensional and time-dependent phenomena in science and engineering discipline. This talk will focus on challenges associated with modelling and simulation in the manufacturing sector and through a number of case studies highlights the benefits gained through the use of such technologies.

Haptics interface for modelling and simulation of flexible cables

Virtual reality systems are becoming a must for product and process design, training practices and ergonomic analysis in many manufacturing industries. The automotive sector is considered to be the leader in applying virtual reality (VR) solutions for real-world, non-trivial, problems. Although, a number of commercial 3D engineering tools for digital mockups exist, most of them lack intuitive direct manipulation of the digital mockups. The majority of these 3D engineering tools are constrained to the interaction mainly with rigid objects which is just half the story. To bridge this gap, we have developed a haptics interface for modelling and simulation of flexible objects. The graphical and haptic user interface developed allows the creation of multiple one dimensional (1D) flexible objects, such as hoses, cables and harnesses. The user is required to provide the mechanical properties of the material such as Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, material density, damping factors, as well as dimensional properties such as length, and inner and outer diameters of the flexible object. Flexilution solver is employed to estimate and simulate the dynamic behaviour of flexible objects in response to external user interaction, whereas Nvidia's generic physics engine is used to simulate the behaviour of rigid objects. A generic communication interface is developed to accommodate a variety of devices without the reconfiguration of the simulation platform.